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When it comes to meat, some Russians just wish they were back in the Soviet Union.

"In those days, meat was cheap. And there was a lot of meat coming from all over the country. But now everything is expensive. And all we get is frozen imported chickens and pigs," said Larisa, a 45-year-old Muscovite.

"It's like ballet -- certain things in the Soviet Union were definitely better." Not all Russians agree with her view of the past, but what is clear is that the painful transformation to a market economy and the scrapping of most state subsidies for livestock production has left the meat sector in a shambles.

Farmers, plagued by insufficient equipment and lack of easy credit, are barely managing to make ends meet despite rising domestic demand.

Meat consumption in Russia, where meals traditionally go with a good chunk of beef or chicken, nearly halved after the Soviet collapse as disposable incomes shrank in the years of economic chaos and instability.

But it has picked up in recent years as supermarkets and fast food restaurants mushroomed across the country.

Despite strong demand, the supply chain remains depressed, and farmers are still incapable of facing foreign competition.

The number of cattle fell last year to 23 million head from 25 million in 2003, and the pig population dropped to 14 million from 16 million

"One must be crazy to invest in this sector," said Musheg Mamikonyan, who is head of the powerful Russian Meat Union.

"There is a really long way to go before this sector will start showing solid growth."

And soaring meat prices -- at 25 percent year on year in March -- are beginning to affect Russia's whole economy, with finance officials blaming expensive meat for Russia's failure to hit a 10 percent inflation target last year.

By contrast, prices for alcohol -- another must-have item on the Russian dinner table -- rose by 8 percent in the period.

The Soviet meat industry was no ideal either.

Many provinces had to survive on food coupons to obtain meat, which was openly available only in big cities like Moscow, and lines and poor quality marked the last days of the regime.

Still, analysts say a more centralized approach could benefit the sector now.

"The Soviet Union had a more or less functioning system of agriculture planning. ... But during perestroika much of that potential was lost," said Igor Sarkisov, head of the procurement department at the Russian-Spanish meat firm CampoMos.

"Russia is again trying to reintroduce some planning in the sector, ... but that has led to sad consequences."

Sluggish investment in livestock farming is the main obstacle, and the government's clumsy measures to protect the ailing sector are only sparking further meat price rises.

"In early 2005, continued poor implementation of the poultry quota and pork and beef [tariff-rate quotas] for the second straight year exacerbated the effect of rising world prices on the Russian market," the U.S. Department of Agriculture said last month in a note on Russian poultry.

At the same time, Mamikonyan said, sectors such as pork and poultry, where players are keenly implementing market economy mechanisms, have already started to show some signs of revival.

Meat producers agreed. "Poultry consumption is growing fast because it's easier and cheaper than other types of meat," CampoMos' Sarkisov said.

"Besides, chickens are associated with healthier food."

The poultry industry is expected to expand output by up to 250,000 tons this year from 1,202,500 in 2004, according to the Russian Poultry Breeders Union.

A great opportunity has been offered to key global exporters like Brazil and the United States to grab a slice of one of the world's most promising meat markets.

Mamikonyan said that if positive trends held, in about 20 years Russia might be able to start exporting up to 3 million tons of meat per year.

But other experts said that was unrealistic, given imports of 970,000 tons of red meat and 1.1 million tons of poultry in 2004.

"It will be really difficult for Russia to become an exporter of meat," said CampoMos' Sarkisov. "Our livestock industry can't really provide quantity and quality."







Date:  May, 18, 2012
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