Chief Strategist’s opinion

15 December 2008

Russia is the cheapest major market in global emerging markets and we believe that it will bounce when global growth turns and has the additional driver of a more positive oil price. However, the market must overcome some hurdles in the short term, and risks remain, both from domestic surprises and the continuing international crisis which has caused such a rapid collapse in global growth. The way in which the many factors, both positive and negative, play out will determine the course of the market in 2009. Until there is greater clarity we hesitate to call the final market trough.

For the coming year as a whole we expect a continued high volatility in the market but we expect a positive outcome for equity investors for the twelve months as a whole. Although the range for where the market may end is very large, our target level for the RTS by the year end is 1000.

Kingsmill Bond, Chief Strategist, Troika Dialog

http://www.therussiaforum.com/2009/news_15122008.html